The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline by Russia presents clear downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the G7 agreement to cap Russian oil prices and the EU proposal to cap gas prices have the potential (if implemented) to remove a key support to the Russian economy next year. Elsewhere, comments from Poland’s central bank governor suggest there is still an outside chance that the bank’s interest rate hike this week is not the last in its tightening cycle.
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