Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday was close, but Erdogan performed better than recent polls had suggested and he now has the edge ahead of a second round run-off on 28th May. Hopes of an opposition victory and a return to orthodox policymaking have evaporated. Instead, there is now a very real risk that an Erdogan victory could lead to macroeconomic instability in Turkey, including the threat of a severe currency crisis and strains in the banking and sovereign debt positions further down the line.
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