The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices. There are still many moving parts at this stage and for now we are sticking with our end-year forecast of $70 pb for Brent crude. But to the extent that Trump doesn’t eventually roll back some tariffs and it becomes clear that OPEC+ is serious about regaining market share, the risks to prices are still skewed to the downside.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.