Although the outcome of the US election plainly matters for Treasuries, there is a risk of overegging this. After all, a large part of the recent moves in Treasury yields seem to have been due to the economy rather than the election. Our sense is that a reasonable base case is a ~15bp swing in the 10-year yield which, these days, is par for the course.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.