US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Jul. 26) The jump in the ISM Manufacturing Index to a four-year high in July suggests that the sector gained momentum at the start of the third quarter, despite the rebound in oil prices. Although the prices... 3rd August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jun. 2026) The smaller-than-expected 0.13% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator in June will be a welcome sight for Fed officials, though that still only translated to small decline in the annual rate to 3.3%, from... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2026) The slowdown in GDP growth to 1.5% annualised in the second quarter will not sway the Fed’s view that the economy is “expanding at solid pace”, given that final sales to private domestic purchasers... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jul. 2026) The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth... 29th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Outlines New Tariffs on Canada President Trump’s set of proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on goods imported from Canada are not as broad as the initial media reports suggest, with the included item codes covering only 5% of goods... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jun. 2026) Despite the unchanged reading in June, second-quarter manufacturing output expanded at a solid 4.7% annualised pace, supported by booming production of hi-tech inputs for the AI buildout. The recent... 17th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jun 2026) The moderate gains in headline and control group retail sales in June are much better than they look considering the softness of price growth last month. Indeed, we estimate that real consumption... 16th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jun 2026) The producer price data lead us to estimate that the core PCE deflator rose at a target-consistent pace of 0.16% m/m in June. Nonetheless, that would still leave the three-month annualised rate at 3.0... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jun 2026) The unchanged core CPI in June is not quite as good as it looks for the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure, but the latter should still have risen at close to a target-consistent rate last month. That... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jun. 16-17) The minutes of the Fed's mid-June meeting confirm a hawkish pivot across the entire rate-setting committee. In a scenario that resembles our baseline for the economy, where the labour market remains... 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (May 2026) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in May was largely down to price effects and can therefore be looked through. That said, the surprise, large fall in computer imports poses a downside risk to... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2026) Inflation pressures softening, albeit slowly The fall in both the ISM services and manufacturing prices paid indices in June brings our weighted index across the two sectors to a four-month low of 69... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jun. 2026) The much weaker-than-expected rise in non-farm payrolls in June sows some doubt in our view that the Fed will reverse all three of its “insurance cuts” over the next three quarters. Nonetheless, with... 2nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2026) ISM points to easing price pressures The slight fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index in June doesn’t change the fact that the sector has generally been resilient since the start of the Iran war. And... 1st July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2026) The 3.4% rate of core PCE inflation in May likely marks the peak of this cycle, as tariff effects fade and the recent plunge in oil prices weighs on several categories, including airline fares. Even... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2026) The median FOMC projection now points to a clear risk of the FOMC hiking this year, but it is likely skewed toward the non-voting hawkish Fed presidents and would probably have pointed to unchanged... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
