US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in August will result in another above-target-consistent gain in the core PCE deflator and means the Fed looks set to hike next week. 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2026) The key components of the PPI that feed into the core PCE deflator were fairly strong in August, raising the chance of the Fed hiking interest rates next week. Admittedly, that still depends on the... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug 2026) Even the most committed dove would struggle to find much in the August employment report to justify keeping interest rates unchanged, with the surge in payrolls driven by strength across the non... 4th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug 2026) The rise in the ISM services index in August suggests that the prior strength in July was not only due to temporary effects from the FIFA World Cup, and leaves our weighted-average ISM index... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jul 2026) The sharp widening of the trade deficit in July was primarily due to sharp rebounds in AI-related goods imports, pouring cold water on the idea that the AI buildout may already be losing momentum and... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Aug 2026) The ISM Manufacturing survey pours some cold water on the idea that the manufacturing sector is beginning to boom, but it does at least remain consistent with growing output. The commentary... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole & Preliminary Benchmark Revisions Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered a far clearer – and hawkish – message than his last press conference appearance, with Warsh arguing that the recent softer price... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jul. 2026), GDP (Q2 2026, 2nd est.) & Durable Goods Orders (Jul. 2026) The slightly above-target-consistent rise in the core PCE deflator in July won’t be enough to convince the Fed that they’ll need to hike rates as soon as September. But with the annual rate still at 3... 26th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jul. 28-29) The minutes of the Fed’s July meeting confirmed that the rate-setting committee had become more hawkish since the June meeting but, with the inflation, labour market and activity data since then all... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jul. 2026) The small rise in manufacturing output in July told much of the same story of late, with production of high-tech products amid the AI buildout sustaining modest growth in an industrial sector being... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jul 2026) The fall in control group retail sales in July, together with downward revisions to growth in May and June, leave the consumer looking a little less healthy and further reduce the chance of the Fed... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jul 2026) The PPI data, together with the CPI data released yesterday, point to a 0.16% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in July. That would be marginally lower than the target consistent rate and, on the back... 13th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul 2026) The 0.21% m/m rise in core CPI in July does not really swing the debate for either the doves or the hawks on the FOMC, with our preliminary estimate ahead of the PPI data tomorrow pointing to a... 12th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2026) Although the hiring weakness in the July employment report has not been reflected in the broader set of labour market indicators, it is still likely to revive concerns among Fed officials about the... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2026) The slight rise in the headline ISM Services Index in July leaves our weighted composite ISM index at a level consistent with third-quarter GDP growth of around 2% annualised. While a little... 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jun. 2026) The slight narrowing of the trade deficit in June reflected a fall in imports of AI goods which helped to offset the big fall in energy exports. This suggests the second estimate of second-quarter GDP... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
