Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US mid-terms and the Iran war, Saudi budget deficit The US mid-terms and a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region have reduced the threat of a renewed escalation of the Iran war and also raised hopes that a political solution to the conflict may... 5th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diplomacy stepped up, IMF in Egypt, Bahrain support There has been a step-up in diplomatic efforts over the past week to avoid a renewed escalation of the Iran war. While Iran is enduring severe economic pain, regime hardliners may still be willing to... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf energy flows, Egypt’s IMF deal and rate decision Reports this week suggest that crude oil flows from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels which, if sustained, will boost regional GDP and oil export receipts. But, so long as there is no political... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt’s balance of payments The latest Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are causing disruption as the Kingdom enters a key season for conferences as well as entertainment and cultural events, setting back the recent recovery in... 15th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iraq devalues, more Qatar gas soon, Jordan growth Iraq's devaluation of the dinar this week highlights the strains in the economy from the hit to its oil revenues. But given the boost to the public finances from the devaluation, as well as limited FX... 8th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Pre-Budget Statement, Gulf GDP data Saudi Arabia's Pre-Budget Statement for 2027, which projects wider deficits than previously thought, highlights the fiscal challenges facing the Kingdom. The government won’t face any trouble... 1st October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline restored, Egypt's resilience The partial reopening of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline will be a relief for both global energy markets and the Kingdom's economy. The immediate downside risk to our forecast for a fall in Saudi... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy... 17th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt at centre of US-China AI tussle, Iran-Oman deal Egypt's decision over whether to have the US or China build a data centre could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing... 27th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE tensions, UAE-Iran trade ties, Egypt spreads Reports that Saudi Arabia has increased monitoring of financial transactions with the UAE appears to be part of growing geopolitical competition between the two countries. The macro impact should be... 20th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi resilience, hopes for Hormuz re-opening Saudi Q2 budget data showed that high oil prices provided a major cushion for the public finances. But the oil windfall masks the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position over the last 18... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Hitting Iran’s economy, Saudi’s GDP fall There have been growing suggestions this week that the US will seek to put more economic pressure on Iran to force it to make concessions. But while Iran’s economy is showing increasing strains, the... 30th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi nuclear deal, Trump and Iran up the ante The US-Saudi nuclear deal announced this week is a sign that Washington is trying to shore up ties with the Gulf states, which have been fraying due to the Iran war. The conflict itself has escalated... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
