Global Economics Update Blue wave could bring new geopolitical risks The Democrat sweep in the midterms could push President Trump to assert his authority in foreign policy, where the election makes little difference to his powers and he may seek to leave his mark... 4th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update France's fiscal warning to the rest of the world The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Japan’s yttrium shortage highlights global vulnerability Japan’s emerging yttrium shortage illustrates the broader vulnerability created by China’s dominance of rare earth supply. The immediate economic impact appears limited, but disruption could intensify... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Forward guidance is not dead: here’s what it tells us For all the talk of the “death of forward guidance”, central banks are still providing a clear steer of how policy will respond under given circumstances. If the energy shock fades as we assume, the... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Refined product prices pose upside inflation risk The surge in refined petroleum product prices has amplified the inflationary impact of this year’s energy shock, pushing fuel inflation above levels implied by crude oil prices alone. While we expect... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What the bond sell-off means for monetary policy Rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions which, if sustained, will weigh on economic activity. This has given rise to suggestions that tighter conditions are doing central banks’ job for... 7th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How China’s export surge has influenced DM inflation China’s influence on headline inflation in advanced economies has been much smaller than is often assumed, given the dominant weight of services in consumer spending. But its surging exports have had... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Countering China Shock 2.0 will carry a climate cost China’s ability to produce and export green technologies at a low cost is a key driver of renewable and electric vehicle rollouts, including in the EU. As a result, efforts to now de-risk from China... 22nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Learning to live with extreme weather events The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will be a greater source of economic volatility than in the past and could hit some sectors particularly hard. The changing nature of... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Q2 GDP data show global economy weathering war 19th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit & AI debt fears miss the bigger picture While private credit and debt-financing of AI investment dominate the headlines about vulnerabilities surrounding corporate debt, the big picture is that business finances are in a healthy state... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions and answers on the oil product shock Gasoline and diesel prices decoupled from crude in July amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, limiting any relief from lower crude prices. This Update answers key questions on refined... 13th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Key factors to watch if/when the Strait re-reopens With reports suggesting that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz again is “imminent”, this Update revisits analysis from June and outlines five key factors to watch over the coming weeks and months. 5th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Who is most exposed to an AI earnings bust? An AI earnings bust need not be synonymous with a macroeconomic bust. Some scenarios – such as falling AI prices or higher input costs – would mainly redistribute income between AI producers and users... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Deciphering central banks’ muddled messages We recently hosted an online Drop-In to review the latest Fed, Bank of England and ECB decisions and what their communications imply. (Recording here.) This Update provides answers to the questions... 31st July 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China can’t bail out the global oil market forever The sharp reduction in China’s crude imports has been a key factor keeping a lid on global oil prices, and we suspect that it can sustain historically low imports for many more months. However, this... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
