China Economics Weekly China relaxing restrictions on refined fuel exports China's government will reportedly ease its restrictions on refined fuel exports further next month. That should be reflected in increased refinery output, but it will only support China's crude oil... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly From bad to worse for gold; Iraq the next to leave OPEC? Gold has been caught up in the souring of risk sentiment towards AI-related assets, and its strengthening correlation with equities is one reason why we think gold prices have further to fall in the... 26th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy prices normalising; digital euro coming (in 2029) ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said this week the Bank would need to raise interest rates further, in part because energy prices were still “measurably higher” than before the Iran war... 26th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Gold prices still haven’t found a bottom Whereas the consensus view is that gold prices will rebound after falling to $4,000 per ounce, we are sticking to our long-held forecast for prices to fall further over the next 18 months. 25th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strait traffic latest, more OPEC exits, refreshed forecasts Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking up but, so far, there are more vessels leaving the Gulf than entering it. Alongside possible technical issues with restarting energy facilities, the... 25th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Outlook Beyond Hormuz: the path back to an oil glut Investors have already priced in much of the good news on the recovery in Gulf energy exports, leaving scope for some volatility in prices, and even price rises, over Q3 and Q4. Beyond this, while... 24th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Effects of the Iran war will be felt for years to come The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a... 23rd June 2026 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2026) The ceasefire has pushed us closer to our baseline scenario in which a return of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz limits the economic damage from the conflict and allows global inflation to... 22nd June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran MoU brings oil glut back on the cards in 2027 Oil prices have fallen sharply following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Our view is that, while there is limited scope for significant price declines over the coming months, an... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update There are no quick fixes for bypassing the Strait Reports that the UAE could have another oil pipeline up and running in 2027 have bolstered hopes of a rapid redrawing of the energy map in the Middle East which would negate Iran’s stranglehold over... 18th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2026) If it holds, the US-Iran agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz will help to drive a recovery in the Gulf economies and support energy-importing EMs, particularly in Asia. Still, the lasting... 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The long-term legacy of the war for the Gulf The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz –... 16th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Commodities Update Five factors to watch as the Strait of Hormuz reopens There is a lot of uncertainty about how the energy market and prices will evolve once an agreement is officially signed between the US and Iran. This Update highlights five key factors to watch in... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2026) Euro-zone industrial production held up well in the first two months of the Iran war, and the recent news on the Strait of Hormuz will be welcomed by the region’s manufacturers. But energy prices are... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
