Emerging Markets Economics Focus Gauging the macro impact of El Niño The experience from the two most recent El Niños is that the current one is unlikely to cause a major shock to EM growth, but that it could add to inflation and worsen trade balances, particularly in... 5th November 2026 · 16 mins read
Climate Economics Update COP31 struggles for relevance The forthcoming COP31 climate conference risks being overshadowed by the fallout from the US midterms. In any case, the more consequential developments for the green transition are continuing to take... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2026) October’s euro-zone HICP data confirm that the indirect effects of higher energy costs on food and core inflation remain very small. While these effects will probably build in the coming months, we... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Central bank demand won’t prevent falling gold prices Central banks will remain a steady source of gold demand and put upward pressure on prices over the coming years. However, we think that central bank buying will be outweighed by other factors, which... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Spectre of hawkish Fed and AI jitters to haunt gold prices At just under $4,000 per oz at the time of writing, gold prices are now back to where they were last Halloween, and ~25% below the peak of the rally reached in late-February. With the bursting of the... 30th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus What to make of broadening US energy dominance? The US is evolving from an oil superpower into a broader energy superpower, increasingly underpinned by gaseous fuels such as natural gas and LNG. In addition to increasing the US’s control over... 29th October 2026 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI boom insulating Asia from the energy shock, for now Asia has proved surprisingly resilient to the energy price shock triggered by the war in Iran. Subsidies and price controls have shielded consumers from much of the increase in global energy prices... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Our views on the key themes from LME Metals Week The backdrop of supply disruptions and the AI data centre buildout supporting metals prices set the scene for discussion during the recently concluded LME Metals Week. This Update provides our... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India steps up efforts to bolster oil security India’s oil imports from the Middle East have rebounded in the past couple of months as supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have gradually recovered and the discount on Russian oil has largely... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly When is an oil risk premium a risk premium? Many commentators have attributed the recent rise in oil prices to an increase in the oil risk premium. While rising geopolitical risks have certainly contributed to the rally, attributing it all to a... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Japan’s yttrium shortage highlights global vulnerability Japan’s emerging yttrium shortage illustrates the broader vulnerability created by China’s dominance of rare earth supply. The immediate economic impact appears limited, but disruption could intensify... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf energy flows, Egypt’s IMF deal and rate decision Reports this week suggest that crude oil flows from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels which, if sustained, will boost regional GDP and oil export receipts. But, so long as there is no political... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update US oil producers adopting a cautious supply response The lack of an aggressive supply response from US oil producers reflects uncertainty over the price outlook and large producers’ preference for returning higher free cash flow to investors. Looking... 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Jackdaw will have little macroeconomic impact The UK government’s decision to allow production at the Jackdaw North Sea gas field is unlikely to have a material impact on the UK economy. It should provide a modest boost to domestic gas production... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy markets are learning to live with conflict The escalation in strikes across the Middle East highlights the upside risks to oil prices. But oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have proved to be relatively resilient, and the expansion of... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How the diesel shock will impact agricultural prices The constraints on diesel supplies from Russia and the Middle East risk causing the energy supply shock to morph into an agricultural commodities supply shock too. While we already expect agricultural... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
