Commodities Update Central bank demand won’t prevent falling gold prices Central banks will remain a steady source of gold demand and put upward pressure on prices over the coming years. However, we think that central bank buying will be outweighed by other factors, which... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Our views on the key themes from LME Metals Week The backdrop of supply disruptions and the AI data centre buildout supporting metals prices set the scene for discussion during the recently concluded LME Metals Week. This Update provides our... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Japan’s yttrium shortage highlights global vulnerability Japan’s emerging yttrium shortage illustrates the broader vulnerability created by China’s dominance of rare earth supply. The immediate economic impact appears limited, but disruption could intensify... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US oil producers adopting a cautious supply response The lack of an aggressive supply response from US oil producers reflects uncertainty over the price outlook and large producers’ preference for returning higher free cash flow to investors. Looking... 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update How the diesel shock will impact agricultural prices The constraints on diesel supplies from Russia and the Middle East risk causing the energy supply shock to morph into an agricultural commodities supply shock too. While we already expect agricultural... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Houthi attacks on Riyadh The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, threaten to set back the recovery in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy, even if the damage to the tourism sector proves to be limited. The key... 12th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño to reduce upside risks for EU natural gas prices By helping to limit heating demand and natural gas consumption in late-autumn and early-winter, an El Niño-driven warm start to the winter in Europe could reduce the extent to which European gas-users... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How would a diesel export ban affect Latin America? A US diesel export ban would be particularly disruptive for Latin America as the region is reliant on the US for supply and has large diesel-intensive sectors, including road freight transport... 28th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The anatomy of the diesel “shock” It now seems more likely than not that some form of export restriction of US diesel will come into place ahead of the midterms which will exacerbate the ongoing diesel “shock”. Most refineries have... 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s appetite for oil has reached a fork in the road With the conflict in the Middle East constraining OPEC’s influence on oil supply, changes in Chinese oil demand have become the “swing” factor in the global oil market. China probably could cut back... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update US export ban would add fuel to the diesel crisis A ban on diesel exports by the US would exacerbate the existing severe strains in the global diesel market and drive prices outside of the US even higher in the short term. Nonetheless, given that a... 23rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Countering China Shock 2.0 will carry a climate cost China’s ability to produce and export green technologies at a low cost is a key driver of renewable and electric vehicle rollouts, including in the EU. As a result, efforts to now de-risk from China... 22nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update A bigger oil demand adjustment lies ahead Global oil demand has been surprisingly resilient so far given the scale of the supply shock. But if that resilience persists and supply from the Middle East remains constrained, a sustained period of... 16th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions on the closure of the East-West pipeline The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could impact up to 4% of global oil supply and each week of the pipeline’s closure could knock up to 0.3%-pts off Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Uncertainty about... 14th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update New (higher) energy price forecasts With a swift resolution to the Hormuz crisis looking unlikely, our new working assumption is that energy flows from the Middle East only return to pre-war levels early next year. While we still... 3rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal? If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
