Africa Economics Update SA local elections unlikely to rock GNU stability, for now South Africa’s municipal election results show that the power of the African National Congress (ANC) has further diminished, giving the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) greater power to push for... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa AGOA exit won’t harm economic outlook The direct economic effects of the US’s decision to remove South Africa from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) are likely to be limited. South Africa’s growth prospects hinge to a much... 3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s GDP upgrade flatters economic challenges The revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data mean the economy is now 5% larger, at $450bn, than previously estimated, which lowers headline public finance ratios. However, this will not change... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from South Africa’s local elections South Africa’s municipal elections next week are set to deliver another setback for the African National Congress (ANC), with the Democratic Alliance (DA) likely to make gains. We think fears about... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: fiscal consolidation remains on track South Africa’s finance minister announced in today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) that the revenue windfall had persisted, allowing him to cover higher debt servicing costs and lift non... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Brazil and South Africa could do with new fiscal rules New fiscal rules mooted in Brazil and South Africa could, if implemented, make significant inroads into their public debt problems by reducing high borrowing costs. But the devil will lie in the... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa services inflation not yet a major cause for alarm The rise in services inflation in South Africa has grabbed the attention of the Reserve Bank but we don’t think it is currently high or widespread enough to prompt further rate hikes. And, so long as... 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update South African bonds to outperform; equities to sell off A drop back in energy prices and progress on fiscal consolidation should allow South African bond yields to fall next year, whereas the outlook for the rand and equities is less encouraging. 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s resilient economy to keep accelerating Nigeria’s economy picked up over the first half of the year and we think growth will accelerate into 2027-28, supported by rising oil production, recovering real incomes, and increasingly supportive... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa public debt ratio is about to peak South Africa’s government debt-to-GDP ratio should peak this year, and we think the government will use the Medium-Term Budget Statement (MTBPS) later this month to reaffirm its fiscal discipline... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but that’s probably the end of the cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) chose to restart monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to 7.25% today, but the commentary suggests that this hiking cycle may already be over. Higher energy prices... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update More easing to follow CBN’s bumper rate cut The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) surprise decision to cut its policy rate by 350bp today, to 23.00%, underlines its confidence that the disinflation process will continue over the coming months... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s growth to surprise on the upside Ghana’s economy slowed in Q2 on the back of weakness in the cocoa sector and we expect the effects of the energy shock to dampen growth over the rest of the year. But looser policy should help to... 10th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: softer Q2 but reasons to be upbeat The latest batch of activity data from South Africa point to GDP growth softening to around 0.3% q/q in the second quarter. That said, we remain confident in our above-consensus forecast for the... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s inflation outlook still benign South Africa’s inflation figures for July, due next Wednesday, are likely to show a temporary drop (probably to 4.3%) and the headline rate is likely to rise back to around 5% by early 2027. But we... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
