Emerging Markets Economics Update Small, low-income EMs bearing the brunt of Trump 2.0 President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are particularly high on some of the lowest-income EMs, which are also among the most vulnerable to the suspension of US aid flows. That raises the risk of balance... 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds, but further rate cuts still on the cards The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate on hold at 7.50% today, but a minority of MPC members voted for a cut and we do not think the easing cycle is over. If inflation continues to surprise... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Industry lagging retail, but recovery to continue South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that the retail sector is steaming ahead and driving the recovery. We think the lagging industrial sector will start to catch up on the back of... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update South Africa’s political uncertainty likely to weigh on assets Lingering fiscal risks in South Africa, alongside the challenging global backdrop, prompt us to expect a dim outlook for the country’s bonds, equities and the rand over the rest of this year. 18th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uncertainty hangs over SA Budget, but compromise likely South Africa’s 2025 Budget speech was (finally) delivered but it’s not at all clear whether the plans will be approved given the DA’s opposition to the proposed VAT hike. We think there is more horse... 12th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s sovereign default risks will continue to build Kenya’s 2025/26 budget has set out ambitious revenue-raising plans that we think will be tough to achieve and some fiscal slippage is inevitable. The result is that, in the absence of further fiscal... 12th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola’s path to avoiding default is narrowing The threat of lower oil prices and the Angolan government’s apparent reluctance to push through (further) fiscal consolidation measures has raised the risk that it will be the next African sovereign... 27th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: economy likely to have rebounded in late-2024 South Africa’s hard activity data for December were generally disappointing but it’s still likely that the economy rebounded in Q4 of last year following a surprise contraction in Q3. We expect the... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: inflation revamp unlikely to change policy path Nigeria’s headline inflation rate came in at 24.5% y/y in January after the national statistics office made substantial methodological changes and, while we do not yet have the full information to... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s sovereign debt outlook is perilous Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its... 6th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Trump’s focus on land bill risks GNU instability The threat by President Trump to cut funding to South Africa due to the controversial land expropriation bill will (if implemented) have limited direct economic effects. The bigger concern is that the... 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hawkishly cuts by 25bp The South African Reserve Bank decision to cut its repo rate by 25bp, to 7.50%, was widely expected but Governor Kganyago was more hawkish than anticipated, citing concern about US tariff threats and... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s activity data signals strong end to 2024 South Africa’s activity data for November points to a strong end to last year, underpinned by the mining and retail sectors. We think GDP will expand by an above-consensus 2.3% in 2025. 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
