Will 2013 be a break-out year for the US economy?

We anticipate that US GDP growth will be a modest 2.0% in 2013, before picking up to 2.5% in 2014. There are still downside risks, particularly the possibility of a renewed crisis in the euro-zone or that the fiscal cliff negotiations fail. Nevertheless, there are some upside risks as well. If the fiscal cliff negotiations are concluded successfully, the removal of that uncertainty could trigger an acceleration in growth, as households and firms start to spend more freely.