Is the US headed for another weather-related contraction?

Even after the run of weaker economic data for February, we still expect first-quarter GDP growth to be close to 2.0% annualised. It is pretty obvious by now that, for the second year in a row, the unseasonably severe winter weather was a much greater drag on the economy than we previously expected. As more data for February is released, we wouldn't be surprised if others revised their first-quarter GDP growth estimates even lower. Once the March data begins to trickle out, however, we should see signs of a rebound, prompting a round of late upgrades to those same first-quarter GDP estimates.