Inflation expectations – are they really falling?

The slump in market-based breakeven inflation rates has raised fears that falling inflation expectations could trigger a deflationary spiral in the US. But breakeven rates are measures of inflation compensation rather than actual inflation expectations. In contrast, survey-based measures suggest that the actual inflation expectations of households, businesses and professional forecasters remain well-anchored.

Subscriber content

Read this in full, free

Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.


Free. 10 articles. No card required.
By completing this form you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions for the provision of a free trial of Capital Economics' services. We take your privacy seriously and will not share your details with others without your consent. By providing your details, including your email address, you are consenting to Capital Economics sending you macroeconomic commentary and analysis. You can unsubscribe at any time. See our Privacy Policy for more information.

Already a client or trialist? Log in to read this.