Higher oil prices not a huge risk to consumers

The surge in gasoline prices in recent days will only add to the drag on households purchasing power from fading stimulus and higher inflation over recent months. But with consumers able to cushion the blow in the near term by reducing their saving, we think oil prices would need to rise much further from here to seriously threaten the consumer recovery. For the broader economy, any hit to consumption should be mostly offset by greater investment in shale production.