The sharp drop in January's ISM manufacturing index has led to some speculation that the US recovery might be coming off the rails, particularly as it followed an unexpectedly weak gain in payroll employment in December. We think these fears are overdone. The unseasonably severe weather means that clients should be braced for a few more downside surprises in the data, but we still expect GDP growth of 2.5% this year, up from 1.9% in 2013.
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