Does the health care vote threaten Trump’s fiscal stimulus?

Thursday’s key House vote on the Republicans’ health care bill has been attracting a lot of attention in the markets amid fears that a defeat would threaten President Donald Trump’s plans for a major fiscal stimulus. We agree that Republican infighting and the possibility of a drawn-out fight over health care increases the risk of a further delay to the fiscal stimulus. But regardless of the outcome of Thursday’s vote, there is no reason yet why a tax reform package couldn’t still be passed early next year.