Troubled Brexit waters ahead

With speculation rising that the UK will trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the big risk is that relations between the UK and the EU sour to such an extent that parts of the whole UK/EU Brexit deal unravel. Even if things do not deteriorate that far, the cloud of Brexit uncertainty adds to our concerns that amidst continued shortages and the drag on real incomes from high utility prices, GDP growth will be sluggish over the next six to nine months.