HGV labour shortages won’t drive interest rates up next year

Reports that shortages of heavy good vehicles (HGV) drivers have become more acute and have raised drivers’ pay will do little to ease fears that higher wage growth could persistently lift CPI inflation next year. But unless labour shortages spread to many more sectors, we don’t think it will prompt the persistent wage and price pressures that might lead the Bank of England to raise interest rates in 2022.