Recovery set to strengthen in 2015

The consumer recovery looks set for another robust year of growth in 2015. Indeed, there are a number of factors which could mean that spending growth accelerates. For a start, the halving in the oil price since last summer is beginning to provide a significant boost to households’ discretionary spending power. What’s more, survey measures suggest that earnings growth is likely to strengthen further. And whilst we cannot exclude the possibility of an interest rate rise later this year, households look in better shape now to deal with a modest tightening of monetary policy. Accordingly, we have pencilled in robust growth in overall consumer spending of 3% this year.