Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (October '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a sustained return to pre-war energy exports won’t... 29th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Central Bank of Egypt’s unexpected 100bp hike to its policy rate (to 20.00%) should be interpreted as an effort by policymakers to provide some support to the pound without resorting to heavy FX... 29th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diplomacy stepped up, IMF in Egypt, Bahrain support There has been a step-up in diplomatic efforts over the past week to avoid a renewed escalation of the Iran war. While Iran is enduring severe economic pain, regime hardliners may still be willing to... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound not a cause for panic The latest fall in the Egyptian pound may delay interest rate cuts and raising the cost for the government of servicing its FX debts. But these challenges should be manageable. And the bigger picture... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf energy flows, Egypt’s IMF deal and rate decision Reports this week suggest that crude oil flows from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels which, if sustained, will boost regional GDP and oil export receipts. But, so long as there is no political... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt’s balance of payments The latest Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are causing disruption as the Kingdom enters a key season for conferences as well as entertainment and cultural events, setting back the recent recovery in... 15th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s debt burden to remain on a downwards path Egypt’s public finances still look poor on the surface, but there are reasons to think that the public debt burden will decline over the coming years. That will have positive spillover effects... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (September '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a return to pre-war energy exports won’t take place... 29th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline restored, Egypt's resilience The partial reopening of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline will be a relief for both global energy markets and the Kingdom's economy. The immediate downside risk to our forecast for a fall in Saudi... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy... 17th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) The surprise fall in Egypt’s headline inflation rate in August, to 14.5% y/y, means the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could still cut rates in Q4 (as we currently expect) but the latest pick up in... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Recovery in the Gulf strengthens The whole economy PMIs for August, released today, suggest that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors is taking hold. The UAE and Kuwait saw the strongest increases, and non-oil activity in Saudi... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
