Figures published this week support our view that Brazilian household spending will strengthen over the coming quarters. But with the 2020 budget setting out further fiscal tightening, the overall recovery will be slow. Elsewhere, the Mexican peso fell this week amid concerns that impeachment proceedings in Washington could derail the ratification of the USMCA deal. While many – including the US trade representative – have downplayed these fears, the risk of the deal being caught up in US domestic politics is probably rising as the US gears up for its 2020 election.
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