LDP’s election woes

The LDP’s recent by-election defeats have generated speculation that the party may do poorly in July’s Upper House election and that the government may delay October’s sales tax hike yet again. But with the opposition’s prospects even poorer than ahead of 2017’s Lower House election, another triumph remains very likely. Meanwhile, the provision of free childcare should mitigate the sting from the sales tax hike and given the recent stabilisation in the survey data, we suspect the government will press ahead.