A selection of our key calls

This note summarises our key calls on major economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. In particular, we forecast US interest rates to rise sooner and further than generally anticipated. While we do not expect this to trigger a major sell-off in the US bond market, it is another reason to expect European and Japanese equities to outperform their US counterparts. We are relatively upbeat about the outlook for many emerging markets and for most commodities, despite the scaling back of monetary stimulus in the US. And while we think that Greece will eventually leave the euro-zone, break-up of Europe’s single currency should be seen as a long-term positive.