Much too soon to call a recovery

We expect the recent weakness of global growth to persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the US and China’s stimulus seems too modest to prompt a sustained and significant pick-up in growth. Disappointing economic performance will leave inflation very low and cause monetary policy to be loosened almost across the board. But we do not see this prompting any meaningful recovery until 2021.