Shifting out of normalisation mode

Signs of weakness in the global economy seem to have prompted a significant change of tack from central banks. Even in the US, where growth has so far held up well, the Federal Reserve appears reluctant to raise interest rates again and we are increasingly confident in our long-held view that rate cuts are to come in 2020. The particular weakness of the euro-zone economy has caused the ECB to stress that previous plans for policy tightening are data-dependent. We now think that continued economic weakness will prevent it from raising interest rates at all in this cycle. Low inflation in Japan will convince the BoJ to maintain its accommodative policy stance. A key exception should be the Bank of England, which we expect to raise interest rates twice this year if a Brexit deal is struck. But in the event of “no deal”, we think that it would loosen policy markedly.