Shakier global backdrop won’t deter the Fed & ECB

The Fed looks to be on course to raise interest rates by a further 25bp at its December meeting in spite of financial market jitters and disappointing news on the global economy. But as financial conditions continue to tighten and the US economy slows next year, we think that the Fed will bring its tightening cycle to an end and eventually cut rates in 2020. The ECB looks set to end its net asset purchases in December and to wait at least until September before raising interest rates. If the UK leaves the EU in March with a deal, we think that the BoE will raise rates three times next year. But in a “no deal” scenario it would probably cut interest rates. Meanwhile, low inflation in Japan should convince the BoJ to maintain its current policy stance.