ECB and BoJ in no rush to follow the Fed

Contrary to suggestions that the ECB and Bank of Japan are gearing up to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, we think they will be happy to trail a long way behind the Fed and Bank of England. Indeed, the case for the Fed to raise rates four times this year has strengthened recently, and we expect the Bank of England to hike three times. But the ECB will probably leave rates unchanged until late 2019. And we expect the Bank of Japan to leave policy unchanged indefinitely.