A deal between Iran and the West which allows for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports is looking more likely. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The most likely scenario in our view is a gradual return of Iranian exports over the next few years, which would probably help keep oil prices low. Alternatively, there could be a deal which results in the immediate removal of most, if not all, of the export restrictions. This would send oil prices sharply lower.
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