What are the chances of a deal in Doha to freeze oil output?

Comments from a leading Saudi Arabian official on Friday have led markets to reassess the prospect of a deal being done in Doha later this month to freeze OPEC and Russian oil production. In our view, some sort of compromise agreement is still likely, even without Iran’s full participation. However, while a Doha deal might help to set a floor under oil prices, a sustained recovery will probably require outright cuts in global supply as well as further increases in demand to rebalance the market.