EM export growth already starting to slow

The recent rise in global trade tensions comes at a time when EM export growth has already started to slow. Higher oil prices will provide a boost to export growth in value terms in the next few months, but this will quickly fade. In the meantime, underlying export volume measures have softened, and with leading indicators worsening and China’s economy set to slow further, EM export growth is likely to be even weaker over the second half of this year.