What do our new oil forecasts mean for Russia?

Modest upward revisions to our (below consensus) forecast for oil prices this year do not radically alter our view on the economic outlook for Russia. The budget deficit is likely to be slightly smaller than we had originally expected, while the current account surplus is likely to be larger. However, the outlook for growth is broadly unchanged. We expect growth this year to be relatively sluggish, but so long as oil remains around $100pb or so a sharp fall in output is unlikely.