Sergey Ignatiev ended his tenure as governor of the CBR by leaving key interest rates on hold today but, with inflation on course to fall over the second half of the year and Mr. Ignatiev’s successor likely to take a more dovish stance, we think the Bank may soon start to ease policy. Nonetheless, the scope for big interest rate cuts is limited. We expect key rates to be lowered by 75bp by the end of this year.
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