Hungary: rates on hold, but problems ahead

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept interest rates on hold today on the back of easing strains in the financial markets. This has come against the backdrop of talks with the IMF and EU apparently getting back on track, coupled with a general recovery in global risk appetite. While much remains uncertain, we think today’s decision may only be a temporary hiatus and a further bout of investor risk aversion and/or any snags in talks with the IMF could well lead to further rate hikes.