Dollar may still fall despite RBA’s reluctance to talk it down

Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia today decided not to try and talk the dollar down after it left interest rates at 1.5%, we still think the dollar will eventually weaken from US$0.80 now to around US$0.70. We believe that subdued GDP growth will prevent the RBA from raising interest rates until late in 2019. That would be roughly a year later than the financial markets currently expect.

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