External sector won’t fuel a rapid rebound

The Australian economy has started to reap some benefits from the rise in key commodity prices towards the end of last year. Most obviously, the trade balance has swung into surplus for the first since time 2014. That’s a good indication that nominal GDP is rising rapidly. However, we don’t expect this to translate into a rapid rebound in real GDP growth as higher commodity prices are unlikely to generate greater export volumes, investment or consumption.