Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly One more RBA hike should do the job RBA policymakers continued to signal concerns about upside risks to inflation, while survey data showed that firms still face elevated price pressures. We expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% later this month... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2026) The fall in existing home sales to 3.98m annualised in August will likely be followed by further declines over the next few months, as mortgage rates look set to climb above 7% amid a further selloff... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Housing weakness not over yet Although the housing market wasn’t quite as weak in August as in recent months, the risk is that a further rebound in mortgage rates and/or speculation of tax rises ahead of the Budget dampens demand... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZ Labour’s tax plan risks delaying housing rebound Opinion polls suggest that New Zealand’s Labour party has a path back to power in November’s general election. Labour’s plan to introduce a capital gains tax on residential investment property risks... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing-market outlook hinges on the RBA Australian house prices continued to fall at a rapid pace in August. While we expect the pace of monthly declines to ease more noticeably in the months ahead, risks to this view have increased. If the... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Jul. 2026) The renewed rise in mortgage rates in July squeezed would-be home buyers’ budgets, causing pending home sales and purchase mortgage applications both to fall. This points to further downward pressure... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) We expect the recent softening in house price growth to continue over the rest of this year as mortgage rates fall only gradually. In fact, the lack of a sustained recovery in buyer sentiment suggests... 18th August 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2026) July’s RICS survey shows that the near-term housing outlook remains weak and the risks to our forecast that house prices will rise by 1.5% in the year to Q4 2026 are still skewed to the downside. But... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing recovery still some way off Strengthening economic growth will not provide much of a lift to the housing market, which we expect to remain in its structural malaise as mortgage rates stay above 6% over the forecast period. We... 12th August 2026 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will prevent further rate hikes Australian house prices kept falling at a rapid pace in July. With affordability still very stretched and leading indicators flashing red, the downturn has much further to run. 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Reintroducing Help to Buy wouldn’t solve housing’s problem While a new Help to Buy scheme would stimulate homebuilding in the near term, it’s not a sustainable solution to low housing supply. The government would be better off easing some of the structural... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2026) June’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market remains weak, households may be funding some of the decent spending in June by lowering their saving rate, and... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates and tight supply to boost prices We suspect house prices will rise only gradually over the rest of 2026 and end up around 1.5% higher in Q4 2026 than a year earlier. But our view that Bank Rate, and therefore mortgage rates, will... 21st July 2026 · 11 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Jun. 2026) Pending home sales and purchase mortgage applications both point to existing home sales falling back below a 4m annualised pace in the coming months. With higher Treasury yields likely to put further... 16th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2026) The modest rebound in buyer sentiment in June chimes with other evidence that suggests a turnaround in the housing market is underway and the downside risks to our forecast for house prices to rise by... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing downturn has further to run Australian house prices continued to decline in June, and we think they won’t bottom out until early next year. Although much ink has been spilt about recent housing tax changes, they have yet to have... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
