Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New outlook, Turkey FX reserves, Russia’s fiscal boost The early signs suggest that the Iran conflict and surge in energy prices have had only a limited impact on activity across Emerging Europe so far. But balance of payments pressures are building in... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Challenging inheritance for new Bank of Korea governor Incoming Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song brings formidable credentials and his appointment will reassure investors unsettled by high debt levels in Korea and the jump in property prices in Seoul... 27th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Quantifying the hit from higher energy prices In our baseline scenario, the hit to Japan’s economy from the energy shock will be limited as energy import prices won’t rise nearly as much as in 2022 and the government is once again capping prices... 27th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) This special UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: from disinflation tailwind to inflation overshoot The rise in global energy prices will push inflation back above central bank’s targets across CEE economies this year and prevent further interest rates cuts for the foreseeable future. We’ve lowered... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Moving towards de-escalation?, Egypt‘s fuel-saving steps The Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point this time last week and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de... 26th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines: unpacking the hit from the Iran war The state of emergency now in place in the Philippines gives the government powers to address the most acute strains in access to essential inputs, but it won’t prevent an economic shock. The central... 26th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Fuelling change – How the energy shock is redefining the EM outlook 16th April 2026, 3:00PM BST Our updated forecasts for emerging markets reflect the impact of the spike in oil and gas prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict. In this online briefing on Thursday 16 April, our…
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (March 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (March 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Forecasting through the fog of war A short conflict in Iran would push global inflation temporarily higher and trim GDP growth, but the fallout would be manageable. Central banks that had already begun tightening – such as the BoJ and... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) Higher oil prices will result in slightly softer consumption in the near term than we previously expected, but we doubt recent events will derail the AI buildout. Thanks to strong AI-related... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI has already peaked but still averages $80 per barrel over the rest of the year, acting as a modest net positive for GDP growth and boosting headline inflation... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2026) The fall in the German Ifo BCI and the Composite PMI in March suggest that the renewed rise in energy prices could derail the tentative recovery in the German economy seen in recent months. We expect... 25th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Mar. 2026) March’s flash PMIs show that the conflict in the Middle East is already going a long way to boosting inflation and extinguishing GDP growth. And this is just the start. 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2026) March’s euro-zone PMI survey shows that higher energy costs are weighing on demand and causing input prices to rise rapidly. 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
