UK business activity fell for first time in more than a year in May Paul Dales, economist at Capital Economics, said the May PMI was the third dataset in three days that suggested “the Bank of England does not need to rush to raise interest rates”. 22nd May 2026 · Financial Times
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets rattled in Turkey, stagflation risks in Poland The ruling by a Turkish court which removed the opposition leader from his position has sparked capital outflows and will compound strains in the balance of payments resulting from the energy shock... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will lift rates to 2% by end-2027 We learned this week that the Japanese economy was in solid shape on the eve of the Iran war. Moreover, the May PMIs suggest that the Bank of Japan’s fears of a steep downturn are unlikely to... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2026) India’s economy will grow at its slowest rate since 2020 this year as a result of the energy shock. We think headline inflation will rise above the upper bound of the RBI’s 2-6% target range over the... 22nd May 2026 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA's work not done yet The jump in Australia's unemployment rate and the recent plunge in auction clearance rates suggest that the upside risks to our interest rate forecasts have diminished. Nonetheless, with underlying... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (May 2026) The drop in consumer confidence since the Iran war began, together with the weakness in the business surveys, suggests that the euro-zone economy might contract in Q2. 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (May 2026) By suggesting that weaker activity may be starting to restrain price rises, May’s Flash PMIs are the third set of figures in three days that suggest the Bank of England does not need to rush to raise... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 26) The composite PMI suggests that economic activity is softening rather than collapsing, while inflation could soon become as strong as it was after the Ukraine War. 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Apr. 26) Most of the recent strength in exports reflects soaring export prices, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz resulted in a record plunge in crude oil imports. T 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2026) If energy prices gradually ease in the second half of this year, as in our baseline, GDP growth should average 2.1% this year and pick up to 2.3% next year. Higher gasoline prices will weigh on... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to stay put, while maintaining policy optionality The RBNZ is likely to leave rates on hold at its meeting next Wednesday, while stressing that it stands prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures show signs of persistence. In our baseline... 20th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs have hit euro-zone exports The front-running of US tariffs gave a small boost to euro-zone exports and GDP last year. But now that the dust is settling, euro-zone exports to the US are significantly lower than they were before... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
