Chief Economist's Note Five macro themes that will shape the world in 2026 The past year has underlined just how influential a handful of macro and market forces have become, from the AI investment boom to persistent US-China tensions to the build up of fiscal risks. Those... 1st December 2025
Equities Update What if the AI stock market boom turned to bust? If the AI stock market boom turned to bust, we suspect the correction would be somewhat smaller but significantly shorter-lived than the one that took place after the dotcom bubble burst. 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MbS’s Washington trip tips the balance in US’s favour Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the US this week secured security, nuclear, mineral, and AI deals which will pull the Kingdom back from China’s sphere of influence towards the US. 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The AI rally is running on fundamentals, not fumes Recent earnings reports give cause for optimism about the health of the AI equity market rally, in our view, and we think it has further to run. 20th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions about AI and demand for commodities This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Why we aren’t worried about US tech valuations The recent plunge in US tech stocks seems partly due to concern about their valuations which, by some metrics, had looked their most stretched since the “dotcom bubble”. This Update argues that those... 19th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus AI boosting US economic growth The AI boom that has been driving the stock market for several years is now clearly evident in economic activity too. In particular, we suspect that AI explains most of the pick-up in ICT sector... 18th November 2025 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update North-south divide emerges in Europe AI usage It is still early days in the roll-out of AI but the data available at this stage suggest that there is a big variation in its usage between European economies. Firms in the Nordics and Benelux are... 18th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities’ relative resilience to the AI nerves China’s stock market has fared better than many as investor confidence in the AI boom has faltered, despite having benefited from that boom this year. We suspect it would continue to outperform the US... 14th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about AI investment The surge in AI investment has so far been more apparent in company reports of nominal CapEx than in real investment in the wider economy. But the latter impact is growing. And while individual... 12th November 2025 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Focus Has the AI “jobpocalypse” begun? The deterioration in the entry-level jobs market has sparked concerns that an “AI jobpocalypse” is upon us. While AI is a contributing factor – especially in some specialised fields like software... 11th November 2025 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE keeps up Gulf AI momentum, Qatar-Egypt deal AI-related investments in the UAE this week add to signs that the US is using access to AI technologies to take the Gulf economies away from China’s sphere of influence. It may also reflect the... 6th November 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What’s driving Australia’s productivity slump? The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has... 5th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Bonds & Equities Making sense of the changing nature of the AI capex boom US hyperscalers are increasingly using leases as an alternative to capital spending. This Update considers why that is happening and its implications for them, the lessors, and the economy more... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Arabia’s FII: PIF and AI dominate the headlines Comments at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia this week suggest that the Public Investment Fund will take a step back from driving investment in the Kingdom, paving the way for greater... 30th October 2025 · 6 mins read
