Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA tones down hawkish bias ever so slightly

The RBA sounded a touch less hawkish at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will start to lower interest rates by August.

19th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Mar. 23)

19th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again

Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last...

15th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Economics Update

Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts

The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect...

12th March 2024 · 6 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA on course for rate cuts in August

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably...

12th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

The worst may be over for the Australian consumer

National accounts figures released this week showed that subdued household spending continued to weigh on the Australian economy in Q4. However, with a recovery in real disposable incomes taking shape...

8th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Markets Update

There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs

Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central...

7th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q4 2023)

Although GDP growth last quarter was in line with what the RBA had expected, the Bank will take comfort from the fact that households continue to exercise spending restraint, while productivity...

6th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Strong capex growth to ease capacity pressures

There are growing signs that restrictive policy settings are working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply in the Australian economy. Indeed, inflation has continued to...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)

Australian house price gains eased only slightly in February. However, with home sales now softening noticeably, we suspect that the momentum behind the housing rebound will soon fade.

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan. 24)

28th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Survey data point to resilience in economic activity

Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to...

23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2023)

The pickup in wage growth in Q4 was driven by larger pay packets for public-sector employees. By contrast, private-sector wage growth actually fell back and should continue to do so in the coming...

21st February 2024 · 3 mins read