Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly One more RBA hike should do the job RBA policymakers continued to signal concerns about upside risks to inflation, while survey data showed that firms still face elevated price pressures. We expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% later this month... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this month With the economy still growing around trend and trimmed mean inflation showing no signs of slowing, the upside risks to inflation that the RBA has been worried are starting to crystallise. We now... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 26) With GDP growth and inflation holding up better than the RBA had anticipated, the Bank will probably hike rates again before long, perhaps as soon as this month. 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing-market outlook hinges on the RBA Australian house prices continued to fall at a rapid pace in August. While we expect the pace of monthly declines to ease more noticeably in the months ahead, risks to this view have increased. If the... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risk of another RBA rate hike is growing This week’s firm inflation and household spending data have raised the risk that the RBA’s tightening cycle is not yet over. But the investment picture is more mixed, while softer labour and housing... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (July 2026) The strong pickup in household spending in July will likely reinforce the RBA’s hawkish bias, but our base case continues to be that it won’t go so far as to hike rates again. 27th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Jul. 26) 26th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s bark will be worse than its bite With the RBA keeping up its hawkish rhetoric, financial markets continue to see another rate hike this cycle as more likely than not. We remain sceptical. Data released this week show that labour... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (July 2026) With the labour market continuing to cool, we doubt that the RBA will tighten policy any further despite its recent hawkish messaging. 20th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 26) Wage growth was weaker last quarter than the RBA had expected and supports our view that the Bank is done tightening. 19th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of housing tax changes still difficult to detect While there’s a risk that the tax changes announced in the Budget will result in a more pronounced downturn, for now we’re comfortable with our forecast of a 6% peak-to-trough fall in house prices. 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn will prevent further RBA tightening With the RBA still sounding hawkish, investors think that another rate hike over the coming months is more likely than not. However, we are reluctant to bet against history as the Bank has rarely... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA retains hawkish bias, but next move will be a cut While the RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged today was widely expected, the Board took pains to reiterate that it remains prepared to tighten policy further if needed. However, despite its tough... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 2026) The RBA predictably left rates unchanged at its meeting today.While the Board continued to talk tough on inflation, we don’t believe that it will go as far as to hike rates again this cycle. 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market will give RBNZ pause for thought New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose more sharply last quarter than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had anticipated and leading indicators suggest that it will remain high for now. Accordingly, we... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA’s next move will be down, but not until H2 2027 We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold at its August meeting. Although the Bank is likely to continue talking tough on inflation for a while, we don’t think it will go so far as to raise rates again... 4th August 2026 · 8 mins read
