Europe Commercial Property Update Tight supply to sustain industrial rents in main German hubs The unusually low share of take-up in the main German industrial hubs appears to reflect a shortage of available space rather than weak demand. While space under construction is rising, this is not... 22nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity data soft in Q3, fiscal policy looser in 2027 The latest official activity data present a downside risk to our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But even if growth is slower than we had anticipated in the third quarter, we wouldn't revise... 16th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s bond sell-off has further to run This week’s sharp sell-off in French government bonds suggests that investors have woken up to the severity of country’s public debt problem. Even if things calm down a bit in the coming weeks, which... 2nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National HICP (September 2026) Data released for Germany, France, Italy and Spain point to an increase in euro-zone headline inflation from 3.2% in August to 3.7% in September. They also suggest that the indirect effects of higher... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (September) 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2026) September’s big improvement in the euro-zone’s composite PMI supports our view that despite the weakness in the official activity data in July, GDP will increase in Q3. The output price PMIs rose too... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A tale of two shocks Events this week highlighted two of the biggest challenges facing Europe's economy: the energy shock and the China shock. We expect euro-zone GDP to keep rising over the coming quarters despite higher... 18th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus China Shock hitting euro-zone harder than most regions China Shock 2.0 will be a structural drag on euro-zone growth for the rest of this decade. Consumers will benefit from cheaper and increasingly sophisticated Chinese imports but manufacturers are... 16th September 2026 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German political uncertainty rising; ECB to hike again The strong showing of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany's state elections is likely to reinforce the difficulties that the federal government faces in implementing reforms and containing... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Learning to live with extreme weather events The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will be a greater source of economic volatility than in the past and could hit some sectors particularly hard. The changing nature of... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tech-related demand to support prime rents in Berlin and Munich Strong tech-related demand is set to support faster growth in prime rents in Munich and Berlin than the other main German markets while the AI boom persists. However, we expect rent growth to ease... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (August 2026) Germany’s August Ifo survey and detailed Q2 GDP release added to evidence of surprising economic resilience and support the case for near-term policy tightening by the ECB. 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond markets and underlying inflation under control? Since the Iran war began, the sell-off in euro-zone government bond markets has been greatest in countries with high and/or rising public debt. We forecast yields across the currency union to fall... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Feeling the heat In the near term, Europe's summer heatwave is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on GDP but poses an upside risk to inflation through its effect on food, electricity and gas prices. Nevertheless... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany: upward revisions but still looking sickly Revisions to Germany’s GDP data suggest that the economy did a little better than previously thought since 2024. But it has still been the clear “sick man of Europe” in the 2020s and its long term... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
