Europe Economics Update French bond sell-off could get worse We see three scenarios for French fiscal policy in the coming months. Even in the best case the spread of French over German bond yields remains higher than before Macron called an early election. In... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political uncertainty to hit French property values Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A little good news under the hood of services inflation Data released this morning suggest that May’s surprisingly large jump in euro-zone services inflation may have been due to the most unlikely of culprits: Taylor Swift. So to some extent, the ECB can... 18th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A poor week for French bonds and equities French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay. 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France risk and ”reverse contagion” It is difficult to know how radical (or reckless) France’s next government will be on fiscal policy, but the risks to France’s public finances have certainly risen since the snap election was called... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but... 13th June 2024 · 32 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2024) The 0.1% m/m decrease in euro-zone industrial production in April was slightly weaker than the published consensus forecast of 0.2% rise, but expectations will have fallen since Ireland’s data were... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Focus The euro could stay lower for longer Although the EUR/USD exchange rate is not far above multi-decade lows, we think structural factors mean that the euro is close to “fair value” relative to the US dollar and most other major currencies... 12th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EU duties on Chinese EVs Reports that the European Commission will “provisionally apply” additional duties of up to 25% on imports of EVs from China from July, on top of the 10% tariff already in place, are in line with... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office? France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone export prospects have improved Sluggish economic growth in the euro-zone’s trading partners and a deterioration in competitiveness caused an extremely rare absolute decline in euro-zone export volumes last year. Poor... 11th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
