Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s fall in euro-zone inflation and the still high level of unemployment in April will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support in order to address the growing risks of... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the ECB weaken the euro? While the ECB looks certain to implement further policy action at this week’s Governing Council meeting – probably in the form of an interest rate cut and measures to stimulate bank lending – this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate cut and lending incentives unlikely to be enough A small cut in the ECB’s main refinancing rate seems like a done deal this month and is likely to be accompanied by a reduction in the deposit rate to below zero. The Bank also seems set to offer more... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) The renewed rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the euro-zone recovery might gather a little pace in Q2. But growth will probably remain too weak to ward off deflationary... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the fragile nature of the region’s banks and should spur the ECB to ease policy further at its meeting next week. 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak euro-zone recovery will sustain populist anger Although populist parties will remain a minority at the European Parliament, the euro-zone’s weak recovery will sustain support for these parties, undermining national reform efforts across the region... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might QE in the euro-zone mean for bonds elsewhere? It has been suggested that one important factor keeping US Treasury yields low is the prospect of a further loosening of monetary policy by the ECB, including some form of explicit quantitative easing... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly France's recovery to be snail-paced France’s economy hasn’t picked up much steam since it stagnated in Q1. Although the outlook for the second half of the year is a little brighter, the recovery will remain pretty weak. The resulting... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Peripheral markets move into the spotlight We anticipate that commercial property markets in the euro-zone will deliver modest gains over the remainder of this year and next as the underperformance of many markets in the region’s peripheral... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB lending scheme would have serious limitations The ECB seems increasingly likely to unveil a new scheme to boost lending to the private sector, perhaps as soon as its June policy meeting. We would welcome such a scheme, but its effectiveness will... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 14) May’s PMIs suggested that the euro-zone recovery remains lacklustre and highlighted the continued divergence between France and Germany. 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EP elections to show rising reform fatigue Euro-sceptic parties are set to perform strongly at elections for the European Parliament. Although the result may have little impact on the institution itself, it risks undermining national... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German engine can’t power euro-zone recovery While the German economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q1, this failed to spur growth elsewhere in the euro-zone and the region's GDP rose by just 0.2%. Possible explanations for this are the fact... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) March’s euro-zone trade data confirm that the strong level of the euro continues to act as a significant headwind for euro-zone exporters. This will furnish the ECB with yet another reason to take... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The disappointingly modest rise in euro-zone GDP in Q1 will have done little to reduce the risk of deflation in the region and the stark divergence between the major economies only adds to... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
