Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Oct.) The ECB’s October Bank Lending Survey (BLS) revealed a slight loosening of credit conditions for firms and stronger demand for loans. It also gave positive signals about the effects of QE on bank... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) August’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that weakening global demand over the summer took a toll on the region’s exporters, causing the trade surplus to fall from a record high. 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s decline in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still struggling to grow despite the weaker euro and that it will not be a major driver of the euro-zone’s sluggish... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What are the prospects for core Europe? With the periphery’s problems far from over, hopes for the euro-zone’s future rest with the core countries. But neither Germany nor France seem set for an economic transformation and the fiscal union... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Which markets offer the best relative value to investors? With government and corporate bond yields at all-time lows in most of Europe and equity dividend yields close to their long-term averages, European commercial property looks relatively well-priced... 8th October 2015 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Greek crisis finally over? This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer recovery remained on track. And the final PMIs point to quarterly GDP growth remaining at around 0.4% in Q3. But September’s monthly fall... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account adjustments not just cyclical The improvement in most peripheral countries’ current account positions since the financial crisis should not be fully reversed as their economies recover. However, if and when Greece returns to... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have strengthened their fiscal positions further in the year to August. But for most, this year’s budget targets still look ambitious. 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) The return of inflation to negative territory in the euro-zone, as well as the continued high rate of unemployment, will heap further pressure on the ECB to increase its stimulus. 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) September’s EC business and consumer survey suggests that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. But growth was still fairly slow and we think that the ECB will need to increase its stimulus... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s dip in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to steady GDP growth in Q3. But the uncertain global environment and fading boosts from thelower oil price and weaker euro look set to... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Brexit wouldn't spell disaster for UK exports Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose to a record high in July, adding to the evidence that the economy got off to a good start in Q3. But we suspect that the trade surplus will fall in the second... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s rise in industrial production merely offset the declines in the previous two months, so is not the beginning of a stronger upward trend in the sector. The survey evidence points to fairly... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Fed lift-off hit or help the euro-zone? We don’t expect the prospect of higher US interest rates to hit the euro-zone too hard. But the ECB should not take any chances and certainly should not rely on higher US interest rates to lower the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
