UK Commercial Property Update How might coronavirus impact European high streets? A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery from weak Q4 will be slow and gradual The raft of Q4 GDP data published this week were weaker than we or the consensus had expected. While the surveys for January show a small improvement in sentiment and activity, they are still... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.), Unemp. (Dec.) Despite increasing in January, the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained much momentum in Q1. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which fell to its... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Coronavirus likely to have small effect on EZ economy As long as the number of coronavirus cases remains low in Europe and contained elsewhere in the world, the impact of the virus on euro-zone GDP is likely to be small and temporary. It would need to be... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Flash PMIs (Jan.) The unchanged reading for the euro-zone’s Composite PMI in January leaves it still consistent with fairly slow GDP growth. We think that the economy will continue to grow at a meagre pace in 2020. 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update No change in ECB dovish stance for now The ECB left its policy settings unchanged today, made little change to its assessment of the economic outlook and said nothing new know about the strategy review. While the markets are pricing in no... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greater focus on housing wouldn’t alter ECB’s stance The ECB could decide in its strategy review to include owner-occupied housing costs in the measure of inflation which it targets. But we think it is unlikely to do so and, in any case, such a change... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Markets Update ECB policy likely to push bond yields and euro down While we have altered our forecasts for ECB policy this year, we are still more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. As such, we continue to think that... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that while consumer spending growth will maintain a steady pace, investment growth will weaken. It also implies that future TLTRO-III operations will be a... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation is still low Underlying inflation pressures in the euro-zone have been building over the past five years, but so slowly that it’s barely perceptible. And rather than being the start of a new trend, the jump in... 20th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook for euro-zone exports still subdued The Phase One trade deal between the US and China is not a game changer for Europe. We still expect euro-zone export growth to remain fairly slow this year as the global economy expands less quickly... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Christine Lagarde’s honeymoon continues At Christine Lagarde’s second meeting as ECB President next week, the Governing Council is sure to leave the main policy settings unchanged. The increase in inflation at the end of last year means... 16th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has not shut the door on further easing The account of December’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Governing Council is content to leave monetary policy unchanged for some time. But it left the option of further easing on the table – an... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
