Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (July) Final inflation data for July underline that price pressures remain strong and broad-based. With wholesale natural gas and electricity prices having surged again in the weeks since July, retail gas... 18th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (August) The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin office rebound to run out of steam Rents in the Dublin prime office market rose rapidly in H1 2022, supported by a continued recovery in occupier demand. However, a cooling jobs market and strong supply pipeline mean that a slowdown is... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy crisis hotting up The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal... 12th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Why we expect a euro-zone recession We think the euro-zone will soon fall into recession as high inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak global growth take their toll. While the economy should recover next year, the rebound will be... 11th August 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rhine troubles add to pressure on German industry The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. But if it persists until December it could... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How big is the threat of an end to Russian gas exports? An end to Russian gas exports to Europe would prompt us to forecast a deeper recession in the euro-zone this winter than we currently anticipate. The hit would come partly through higher inflation... 9th August 2022 · 21 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office market at a turning point? German prime office yields jumped in Q2 amid early signs that the weakening economic outlook is weighing heavily on the office market. And while there were strong rental gains in the first half of the... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for recession, ECB using PEPP flexibility The activity data published this week add to the evidence that the economy is heading for recession. Meanwhile, the ECB published data showing the degree of flexibility that it has applied to its PEPP... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) The small increase in German industrial production in June was not enough to reverse declines earlier in the year and left output well below pre-pandemic levels. Things are going to get more difficult... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing sharply amid high inflation Euro-zone GDP increased by more than we had expected in Q2 as reopening effects boosted the services sector, particularly in the southern countries. But things have already taken a turn for the worse... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone retail sales in June means sales contracted in Q2 as a whole. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures continuing to intensify and demand softening, we think... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Better transparency provides little respite for yields While encouraging for the property risk premium, better transparency across Europe is unlikely to provide much support for property yields given the deterioration in the economic and interest rate... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (June) In June, the number of unemployed people rose in the euro-zone for the first time in 14 months. Nevertheless, we expect the labour market to remain tight even as the economy heads into recession... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slowdown in European investment to continue After a strong start to the year, European investment weakened in Q2. And we expect only lacklustre activity over the second half of the year as rises in the cost of debt, tightening credit conditions... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
